Bitcoin: Nov 2021-2023 Evaluation

GTZ Fx Trading

12 min readNov 14, 2023

Post Occurrence Review. Bear & Range

Table of Contents

1. Post-review insights and lessons
2. Phases
3. Bear drawdown
4. Time Cycle
5. Cup & Handle
6. Ranges
7. Bull Trend
8. Earn via Copy Trading
A. DXY vs BTC — 2021 to 2023 co-relation review
B. Technical Analysis Summary in time series

1. POST-REVIEW INSIGHTS AND LESSONS

Monthly timeframe: It offers the best view of the overall structure i.e. OABC correction during bear and Cup-&-Handle during range.
Weekly timeframe: It shows a detailed structure of the cup-&-handle and Inverse-Shoulder Structure
Daily timeframe: Shows the Moving average support and resistance.
Seasons: We have 4 seasons in terms of market reaction/action based on preparedness: Wait, Enter, Hold and Exit just like in farming you have waiting, planting, cultivating and harvest seasons.
Attitude: During the wait season remember “Delay does not mean denial, it means it is preparation time”. Increase your fuel tank of patience. Spend it on research and tests, learning and creating frameworks and models. During entering or planting season be bold and courageous to enter the trades. During hold be patient and do not be shaken out of a winning trend due to pullbacks observe the change of Moving Averages of the key trend timeframe.

2. PHASES

As iterated in this article (https://medium.com/@gtzfxtrading/the-scissor-effect-7849b37e2fe7), to form a complete cycle price goes through a series of 3 major phases i.e. Up, Down and Sideways. These follow each other in sequence separated by the sideways movements as shown below :

Let’s Review BTC Phases from Nov 2021 to Nov 2023

#Moving Averages Focus

Major Moving Averages to consider:

EMA5 Weekly & EMA10 Weekly
SMA35 Weekly, SMA100 Weekly & SMA200 Weekly

#Top Sideways

Zone A: Distribution.

> Start: Indicated by Awesome Oscillator above 0, turns from Green to Red and confirmed by EMA5 Weekly > SMA10 Weekly.

> End: EMA5 Weekly crossing down SMA35 Weekly

#Bear

Zone B: Bear.

> Start: Price touches or crosses SMA35 Weekly as a leading indicator. Approximately confirmed by EMA5 Weekly crossing down SMA35 Weekly indicating the start of the bear trend.

> End: This ends with the price touching SMA200 Weekly a target Moving Average. But more accurately indicated by EMA5 Weekly crossing down SMA200 Weekly and later confirmed by Awesome Oscillator less than 0, changing from Red to Green indicating the change from Bear to Range.

#Bottom Sideways

Zone C: Bottom Ranging. Price ranges below SMA200 Weekly as a leading indicator. Confirmed more accurately by EMA5 Weekly < SMA200 Weekly and Awesome Oscillator less than 0, changing from Red to Green indicating the change from Bear to Range.
Zone D: Accumulation Ranging. Price ranges above SMA200 Weekly as a leading indicator. Confirmed more accurately by majorly EMA5 Weekly > SMA200 Weekly and Awesome Oscillator majorly greater than 0, post the impulsive correction.

#Bull

Zone E: Bull Trending.

> Start: Started earlier during Bottom Ranging with Price touching SMA35 Weekly followed by EMA5 Weekly crossing up SMA35 Weekly.

> Confirmed: Confirmed by EMA5 Weekly crossing up SMA100 Weekly.

3. BEAR DRAWDOWN

# Bull High 3 — Base Low Level

> Estimate Bull High 3 Peak

Fib Extension: Place Fib 0 at the previous Base Low i.e. $3,122 and Fib 1 at Previous High i.e. $19.6K. Fib 4.236 gives an estimate of Base High 3 peak at $73,198 however for this respective broker highest listed price was $69K.

> Estimate Bull High 3 Base

Fib Retracement: Place Fib 0 at Bull High 3 Peak at $69K and Fib 1 at the previous Base Low i.e. $3,122. The Base low is at the retracement level Fib 0.786 at $17,220 which is near the left shoulder of Cup-&-Handle.

# Trend Type: SMA200 Weekly — 5th Dec 2021 & 12th Dec 2021

> EMA5 Weekly cross down EMA10 Weekly (Super Trend) by week of 5th Dec 2021. Indicating close all trades

> EMA5 Weekly cross down SMA20 Weekly by week of 12th Dec 2021. Confirming the end of the Bull trend and confirming Bear Trend.

This indicated the following hints as of December 2021:

a 3-month bear market, which ended at the retest of SMA35 Weekly which
a 70% correction magnitude
a 9-month range
followed by 2-year bull trend

# Range Roof: SMA200 Weekly — 31st Dec 2021

> EMA5 Daily cross down SMA200 Daily on 31st Dec 2021 signifying next support to be SMA200 Weekly. SMA200 Daily is ~= to SMA35 Weekly i.e. the Trend Resistance/Support.

# Range Floor: SMA100 Monthly (Not Touched) — 9th May 2022

> EMA5 Weekly cross down SMA100 Weekly on the week of 9th May 2022 signifying next support to be SMA100 Monthly. The Capitulation Candle end found its bottom during this week.

4. TIME CYCLE

> We anticipate extremes in May, July and November based on the time cycle.

Parameters:
* Start Date: 3rd Dec 2021
* Start Price: $57,592
* Event: EMA5 Daily cross down SMA100 Daily, EMA5 Weekly cross down EMA10 Weekly
* Direction: Start of Bear trend
* Delay Factor: 21

Bear Trend (3rd Dec 2021): Bear trend is indicated with EMA5 Weekly crossing down EMA10 Weekly. There is a retest of SMA35 Weekly as the ceiling/resistance of the bear trend.
Bearish Range Start/ Bear End (21st June 2022): The range zone starts when the capitulation candle occurs and lasts 9 months from 12th June 2022 to 12th March 2023. The Capitulation candle also forms the left shoulder of the cup-&-handle structure.
Bullish Range Start / Bearish Range End (18th Dec 2022): The bearish range ends after the head is formed. The change of trend and the left shoulder are contained within this segment. The price crosses SMA35 Weekly going up. SMA35 Weekly becomes the supporting trend or floor of the bull trend.
Accumulation start / Bullish Range End (18th April 2023): The bullish range ends at the Cup High. This also marks the beginning of the Accumulation Period — ( a W-Formation) with a double retest of the neckline.
Accumulation tests neckline (17th June 2023): The 1st leg of accumulation tests the neckline, confirming the floor of accumulation range
Accumulation tests cup-high/ End of Cup & Start of Handle(14th July 2023): The 2nd leg of accumulation tests the Cup Ceiling, confirming the ceiling of accumulation range

NB* SMA100 Weekly which marked the start of the cup-&-handle will also mark its end

5. Cup-&-Handle : 8th May 2022

EMA5 Weekly < SMA200 Weekly

Start: On the week of 8th May 2022, EMA5 Weekly crossed down SMA100 Weekly and a Capitulation candle was also formed.
Neckline: Price level $32,376 on the week starting 30th May 2022.
Left shoulder: Price level $17,593 on the week starting 13th June 2022.
Head: Price level $15,479 on the week starting 21st November 2022.
Right Shoulder: Price level $19,569 on the week starting 6th March 2023.
Cup High: Price level $31,818 on the week starting 10th July 2023.
Handle start: Price level $30,414 on the week starting 17th July 2023.
Handle support: Price level $25,350 on the week starting 21st August 2023.
End of Cup-&-Handle: Price level $35,198 on the week starting 23rd October 2023.

6. RANGES

#9-month consolidation: ZONE A along SMA200 Weekly (12th June 2022 to 12th March 2023)

EMA5 Weekly < SMA200 Weekly
The end of the Bearish Ranging is indicated byEMA5 Weekly crossing up SMA35 Weekly and Awesome Oscillator going from less than 0 to greater than 0 — Bullish reversal.

A 9-month consolidation period

#9-week consolidation: Zone B along SMA35 Weekly (Week starting on 13th August 2023 to week starting on 8th October 2023 and ending on 14th October 2023)

Weekly Candle close below SMA200 Weekly.
Majorly EMA5 Weekly < SMA200 Weekly
Recovery is indicated by the Awesome Oscillator below SMA200 Weekly, changing from Red to Green and from less than 0 to greater than 0 — Bullish reversal.

7. BULL TREND

#Scissor mid-point: Time Cycle Handover

> Start: By EMA5 Weekly greater than SMA100 Weekly

> End: Awesome Oscillator above 0 changing from Green to Red. Confirmed with EMA5 weekly crossing down EMA10 Weekly.

#Time Target — X Axis Analysis

Time Cycle Recap
Accumulation tests neckline (17th June 2023): The 1st leg of accumulation tests the neckline, confirming the floor of accumulation range
Accumulation tests cup-high/ End of Cup & Start of Handle(14th July 2023): The 2nd leg of accumulation tests the Cup Ceiling, confirming the ceiling of accumulation range

We have 2 anchors from the Time Cycle i.e. Bottom of the Range / Retest of Cup-&-Handle neckline Accumulation tests neckline (17th June 2023) and Top of the Range/Cup-&-Handle High Accumulation tests cup-high/ End of Cup & Start of Handle(14th July 2023), that gives the estimates of the different dates of consideration as we enter the Parabolic leg.

The Cup-&-Handle basin and the accumulation give the foundational basis upon which the Parabolic Trend stands upon.

This gives an estimate of 9th December 2023 as the expected All-Time-High date.

#Price Target — Y Axis Analysis

Fib 4.236 Target:
Step A: Place Fib 0 at the Previous Base Low and Fib 1 at the Previous Parabolic Bull Run All-Time-High.
Step B: Place Fib 0 at the Previous Base Low and Fib 1 at Fib 4.236 or Peak near Fib 4.236 of Step A.
Step C: New Parabolic Bull Run All-Time-High can be estimated at Fib 4.236 for 2023 we get a target price of Fib 4.236

Previous Years Examples:

#2011

#2013

#2017

#2023

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A. DXY vs BTC — 2021 to 2023 Correlation Review

#BITCOIN ON TOP vs DXY BELOW

In general, as DXY became stronger on an uptrend, Bitcoin was weaker

#Strengthening Dollar

Point A: (Week of 2021 03 28) — DXY Awesome Oscillator goes from less than 0 to above 0 ( < SMA100 Weekly && < SMA50 Weekly: implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bullish Peak (> SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly: strong to weak)
Point B: (Week of 2021 06 27) — DXY Awesome Oscillator goes from less than 0 to above 0 ( < SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bullish Pullback Bottom & Recovery. (> SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly : weak to strong)
Point C: (Week of 2021 09 26) — DXY Awesome Oscillator above 0, turns from red to green ( < SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: IMPULSIVE — implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bullish Pullback Recovery. (> SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly : weak to strong)

#Strong Dollar

Point D: (Week of 2021 11 07)— DXY EMA5 Weekly crosses SMA100 Weekly going up (> SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying the start of Parabolic move weak to strong). BTCUSD Bullish Peak (> SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly :strong to weak)
Point E: (Week of 2022 02 13) — DXY Awesome Oscillator above 0, turns from red to green (> SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bearish Pullback (> SMA100 Weekly && < SMA50 Weekly : weak to strong)
Point F: (Week of 2022 06 26) — DXY Awesome Oscillator above 0, turns from red to green (> SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bearish Pullback (< SMA100 Weekly && < SMA50 Weekly : weak to strong)
Point G: (Week of 2022 08 28) — DXY Awesome Oscillator above 0, turns from red to green (> SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying going from weak to strong).BTCUSD Bearish Pullback (< SMA100 Weekly && < SMA50 Weekly : weak to strong)

# Weakening Dollar

Point H: (Week of 2022 10 23) —DXY Awesome Oscillator above 0, turns from green to red (> SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying going from strong to weak). BTCUSD Bearish Pullback (< SMA100 Weekly && < SMA50 Weekly : strong to weak)
Point I: (Week of 2022 12 04) — DXY Awesome Oscillator goes from above 0 to less than 0 (> SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying going from strong to weak). BTCUSD Range (< SMA100 Weekly && < SMA50 Weekly : weak to strong)

# Impulsive Bear — V-Formation

Point J: (Week of 2023 02 12) — DXY Awesome Oscillator below 0, turns from red to green (> SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bullish Peak(< SMA100 Weekly && < SMA50 Weekly : strong to weak)

# Distribution — W Formation

Point K: (Week of 2023 04 30) — DXY Awesome Oscillator below 0, turns from red to green (> SMA100 Weekly && > SMA50 Weekly: implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bullish Peak(< SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly : strong to weak).
Point L: (Week of 2023 07 02) — DXY Awesome Oscillator below 0, turns from green to red**** Higher Low(implying going from strong to weak****). BTCUSD Bullish Peak, Higher High(< SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly: strong to weak). Double strong-to-weak -> Bearish Divergence of Quote.
Point M: (Week of 2023 08 06) — DXY Awesome Oscillator below 0, turns from red to green Higher Low(implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bullish End of Cup High — Lower High(< SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly: strong to weak).

# Handle — Final Dip — U formation

Point N: (Week of 2023 08 27) — DXY Awesome Oscillator goes from less than 0 to above 0 (implying going from weak to strong). BTCUSD Bullish Trough, Lower low(< SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly: weak to strong). Double weak-to-strong -> Bullish Divergence of Quote.
Point O: (Week of 2023 10 22) — DXY Awesome Oscillator above 0, turns from red to green (implying going from strong to weak). BTCUSD Bullish Trend(> SMA100 Weekly && >SMA50 Weekly: weak to strong).

B. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY IN TIME SERIES

Phases (21st Nov 2021) gave a hint of change in phases from Bull to Distribution
OABC Drawdown (5th Dec 2021) gave hints of a bear trend confirmation, the magnitude of correction i.e. @70% Y-Axis, the duration of a range of the X-Axis, the duration of the bull trend afterwards
Parabolic curve delay & time factor (3rd Dec 2021) gave an estimate of the length of the cup-&-handle in terms of time i.e. X-axis and various zones.
Bear drawdown (31st Dec 2021 & 9th May 2022) helped indicate the roof and floor of the range i.e. Y-axis estimate.
The cup-&-handle (8th May 2022) gave the exact length of range i.e. 9 months showing the cup forms the base support of a 2-year bull trend. Also, assist in determining the price floor of the head.
The Fibonacci (8th May 2022) helped indicate the price level for the head and neckline for the head and shoulder structure, which are significant support levels.
Moving averages (SMA35 Weekly Price Touches: 27th March 2022, 8th Jan 2023, 5th March 2023, 13th August 2023 and 15th October 2023) helped indicate trend direction, detailed resistance and support for the price, and trend support and resistance.
The awesome oscillator helped indicate the impulse and correction and the M-Formation structures during the accumulation zone and Handle bullish reversal.
Trend lines: Indicated support and resistance lines as the price accumulated
Fibonacci Extension: Used to estimate probable All-Time-High