20220426: Social Media Research & Information evaluation
26th April 2022
A. Research from Twitter
I normally get ideas and insights from Twitter follows. I have added the people with the most relevant content to my Twitter lists. My handle as shown is @kengitz.
To access the Twitter lists go to profile picture > Lists > and select the preferred list, especially the Crypto and Fintwit list as shown below:
That’s like my library of the most important people I follow, who conduct relevant and deep research. Here you can get ideas from people running some of the biggest financial institutions, some of whom have over 30 years of experience in trading and investment.
This is mentorship 101 without knowing the individual. Most are based in the US and Europe.
B. Gmail as a Storage
- I normally share the tweets with pics with my email for research and future reference.
This is very important to ease the search of particular content or but also because Twitter has a habit of banning people leading to loss of data.
Once they are in Gmail,
- I normally organize them by assigning labels just the same way you would file documents into folders. This makes it easier to research.
- All I need to research on any topic is to just search on Gmail inbox “Search” field and all related material is organized and delivered.
Some of the best info is sent to my email. Over 8,694 collected
C. Research Outcome
A good end product of such research and discovery can be shown in this article, where I made very important discoveries.:
- I highlighted the impact of the Federal reserve bank’s rising rates on the stock market.
- I also summarized the correlation between S&P 500 ( US Stock Market) and (Bitcoin) as noted by various people in their tweets.
- This is what Macro analysis is all about.
As noted there is a great inverse correlation between the Credit Market (CBK/Fed interest rates — Treasury bills and bonds ) and the Equity Market (Shares).
So as investors this information is very important to know and will assist you in understanding capital flow and its impact on your portfolio and investments.
Let’s look at an example;
In Kenya, there was high growth in shares during the Kibaki regime with a lot of IPOs like Kengen/Safaricom as compared to during the Uhuru regime.
This is because, during the Kibaki regime, they borrowed locally at low rates and the other part of government financing was largely driven by tax collected. This made banks, who like lending to the government due to reduced risks, being forced to lend to business people. This created a lot of liquidity in the economy and hence brought an economical restoration and a high GDP growth rate. This led to increased profits and the performance of the business in the stock market.
The Uhuru regime became more pro-credit by borrowing locally to finance government projects at the expense of local businesses. These banks prefer to buy government bonds than lend to SMEs hence the cash shortfall. Because government bonds are less risky and more guaranteed. Which generally would affect performance in the stock market.
NB* Kenya is an employee-consumer-debt economy that in the global trade is a net importer. Credit thus becomes the main driver of GDP growth.
Let see the evidence of above statements:
Kengen from 40 bob level pre-2007 to bow 5 bob level post-2020
BOC Kenya from 150 level pre-2007 to 60 level post-2020
KCB from 20 level pre-2007 to 35 level post-2020.
Industrial and manufacturing performed poorly in high-interest rate environments while banks perform remarkably well.
So as an investor:
1. It’s important to know the relation between the credit market and equity market so that if one is going down you’re well positioned for the other to go up.
2. It’s important to be doing continuous research from CREDIBLE SOURCES and develop your investment principles. Organized knowledge that is well planned into action is power.
Investment is about decisions and the more informed you are the better you are to do due diligence and make the best decision.
D. Information Evaluation
Now back to Elon Musk, what’s the game behind the optics of him buying Twitter?
Most like Tesla don’t have active marketing. He mainly uses Twitter to share information. Just like Steve Jobs, founder of Apple world’s most valuable company, liked to do presentations to create buzz around new products.
So Elon must be securing his means of marketing.
Just like Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder, bought Washington Post definitely to influence lobby for his vast e-commerce empire.
Information business is very big, see below.
Largest American companies by market capitalization I.e. over 1 trillion USD. First 4 deal with tech/information. Microsoft which didn’t have directly bought LinkedIn. That should say it all, friends.
So No 5 had to also secure a way to speak to consumers.
In summary, know that online information is very important.
Many people make decisions based on what’s online/Google.
So most influencers including the wealthy want to influence your decisions via online media. From investment to marketing to politics to entertainment to nearly all spheres of life.
The seat of decision-making is either mind and/or heart based on your mindset and belief system respectively.
Most people unfortunately don’t THINK TWICE and VET the information. They don’t separate the “wheat from the chaff” or “meat from bones”. Note they will say, Google it, yet without thinking anyone can post anything online.
- So “guard your heart from out of it comes all issues of life” and
- “The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him”, so collect all information before coming to a decision, the book of Proverbs, by the wealthiest in history, is very good on this and on instructions.
- Point in case: “Wisdom is the principal thing; therefore get wisdom: and with all thy getting get understanding.”
Remember in all types of investment, there will be Nay-Sayers (doubters/sceptics/ fixed mindset) to good things who want to go back to “Egypt” and usually the majority and the Yes-Sayers (visionaries/growth mindset) to good things who want to go forward to “Canaan”. Your choice.
- Also “don’t throw baby with bath water”. Means, there can be good people who will speak incorrect things and not-so-good people speaking correct things.
Discernment is key, evaluate everything on its merits and demerit and separate an individual from their content so as to remain objective like Solomon and not subjective.
Good information and facts lead to good choices which lead to profits.
Have a good day.
